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Full resolution (TIFF) - On this page / på denna sida - III. Population and Migration - 7. Population - 2. Births and Deaths
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164 An American Dilemma
much as those of Negroes.^^ In the migration to cities the Negro birth rate
is affected by two special factors: (i) When they migrate to cities, Negro
women seek jobs more than white women do, and all urban occupations,
especially domestic service, in which Negroes are concentrated, make
child-bearing disadvantageous.^® (2) When Negroes have migrated to
cities, the men have gone more to some cities and the women more to
other cities than in the case of the whites. This is because Negro women
seek jobs in cities more than do white women, and they have gone mainly to
commercial cities where there is a greater demand for domestic servants.
Negro men, on the other hand, find more opportunities in industrial cities
than the Negro women do. The result is that migration involves a greater
unbalancing of the sex ratio for Negroes than for whites, and consequently
the birth rate is reduced more.
Also, migration has probably meant a somewhat reduced death rate for
the Negroes,^® but the decline in death rate has not balanced the decline
in birth rate. In 1940, the nonwhite net reproduction rate for rural-farm
areas was 154, as compared to 76 for urban areas j
for whites the compara-
ble figures were 132 and 76, respectively.-^
The future of Negro migration is, of course, uncertain. In following
chapters we shall find that there are reasons to anticipate that Negroes, more
than whites, will be pushed from the Southern land and also that they,
more than whites, will attempt to come North. If we consider migration
alone, therefore, the effects of urbanization on fertility seem likely to con-
tinue to be somewhat greater for Negroes than for whites. This is uncertain,
however, as the fertility of urban whites now has dropped sharply and may
continue to fall more rapidly than Negro fertility. The sex ratio for Negroes
has been tending to even out and will continue to do so. Negroes are
becoming more accustomed to the strains of city life and its effects on their
health may not be so great as has been the case in the last two decades. The
death rate of Negroes in Northern cities might also decrease considerably
if better health facilities are made available to them and taken advantage
of by them. For all these reasons, the net reproduction rate might reach
a lower limit which would be higher than the white rate.
Other differentials between various classes and groups of Negroes are
important in estimating trends in Negro population. First, there is the
income differential. Among Negroes, as among whites, the larger the
income, the lower the birth rate, the lower the death rate, and the lower
the net reproduction rate.^® These relations are characteristic only during
the period before the practice of birth control is taken up by the lower
socio-economic groups. But for America as a whole, and particularly for
the Negro people, this phase is likely to last for many more decades. What
significance these differentials will have for the future of the Negro popula-
tion it is difficult to say. As we do not foresee any great rise of economic
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