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Full resolution (TIFF) - On this page / på denna sida - IV. Economics - 19. The War Boom—and Thereafter - 4. The Negro in the Armed Forces - 5. ... And Afterwards?
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Chapter 19. The War Boom and Thereafter 423
Negroes and others, but because of the action of military leaders who
grasped the deeper implications of this War, they would have been
much greater and much more significant, not only for the Negro, but for
the nation as a whole.
5. . . . and Afterwards?
What will be the Negro’s economic lot in post-war America? There is no
definite answer to the question, of course, since it will depend on happen-
ings yet to occur and policies yet to be decided upon. But we can list
some of the main factors entering into the problem. When sketching such
an analysis of future possibilities and probabilities, it must be kept in mind
that now, even less than ordinarily, we have little right to predict from a
mere extrapolation of trends. There are no trends independent of fluctua-
tions j
the fluctuations create the trend, and the trend is nothing but the
cumulative effect of fluctuations.®
Thus, the more the Negroes gain during the present war boom, the
more will they have advanced themselves permanently j
and even if, during
a later development, they will have to give up some ground, they are not
likely to be driven back as far as they would have been had their previous
gains been smaller. Conversely, the more they lose during the next unem-
ployment crisis, the smaller chance will they have of reaching anything near
full employment during a subsequent period of labor shortage. Quite
especially in regard to the Negro’s economic status, we have to emphasize
the significance of what happens during the short-term development. The
Negro’s position in the American economic system depends in a large
measure on traditions which have actually become settled because of
rather accidental happenings. Whether he does or does not work in a par-
ticular occupation depends upon whether a small group amohg many
employers who experienced a labor shortage happened to get the idea of
trying him out 5
or whether his white fellow workers, during a period
• It is usual, in the analysis of economic changes, to distinguish between cyclical fluctua-
tions and long-time trends. For example, if industrial production increases by 3 per cent
per annum, on the average, over a certain long period, but for one particular year the
increase is 6 per cent, the difference between these two flgures (or some other statistical
expression, based on a similar principle) is supposed to measure the cyclical variation for
this particular yearj the average rate (which can be computed in different ways) is believed
to “indicate the long-run trend.” Such calculations may be useful for several practical
purposes, but they are always arbitrary. There is no “pure” trend and no “pure” cyclical
change. Both types of change are closely interwoven. The trend depends largely on the
character of the business cycles, and vice versa. This fact is often overlooked. The writer,
for instance, has heard social scientists express the idea that the employment losses that Negroes
have experienced during the ’thirties would not matter “in the long run,” since they only
constituted “temporary” and “cyclical” fluctuations. In reality, however, there is no guarantee
that any of the temporary changes are reversible j
if Negroes arc driven out of a certain
occupation, they may never get in there again.
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