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i9H] GERMANS DETERMINED ON WAR 295
of the high opinion I had of M. Pachitch’s prudence, I
had not imagined that Serbia could have displayed such
moderation and so much obedience to our advice. The
unheard-of, brutal ultimatum from Vienna was accepted,
except on one point only: the one that aimed quite
simply at replacing the national police in the kingdom
by Austro-Hungarian police. And the Serbian
reservations on this one point had sufficed for Austria not to
accept the answer and to break off diplomatic relations
with her neighbour! It was as clear as daylight that in
Vienna—as in Berlin—the execution of Serbia had been
irrevocably settled. Now as I foresaw that Russia
could not tolerate this brutal execution, I was almost
convinced that in a few days my country would be
involved in an open collision with the two Central
Empires.
The negotiations and events of the succeeding days
proved that these two Empires did not look on the
action they had undertaken quite in the same way.
Whereas, for the Austrians it was chiefly a question of
punishing the Serbians, of avenging the events of 1912
and 1913, of re-establishing manu militari the influence
of the Empire in the Balkans ; whereas in Vienna they
hoped in petto for a capitulation of Russia which would
have enabled Austria to do the deed without having to
face the terrible trials of the great war—in Berlin it was
just this war that was wished for; it had been decided
on after long subterfuges and an underhand but violent
struggle between the preventive-war party and the peace
party; and once it had been decided on, they wished it
to break out at a chosen and apparently pre-eminently
propitious moment. I have good reason to believe that in
the Wilhelmstrasse,they were prepared for the
following-course of events: (1) the bombardment of Belgrade and
occupation of Serbia by Austro-Hungarian troops; (2)
Russian mobilisation and ultimatum from Russia to
Austria; (3) counter-ultimatum and declaration of war
by Germany on Russia. From Tuesday, the 28th, when
a certain hesitation and a tendency to enter into
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