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TO ERIVAN 127
not fluctuations of climate, has brought about these great
changes and turned the land into a desert.
Furthermore, wc have reliable evidence that the general
rainfall cannot have been appreciably less during historical
times. If the rainfall in earlier ages had been noticeably
greater than it is now, wc should expect the water-level in
salt lakes with no outlet, such as Lake Van and Lake Urmia
south of the Arax river, to have been noticeably higher than it
is now. This argument assumes that the lakes have not got
variable subterranean outlets.
The water-level of a lake of this kind is, of course, dependent
upon whether the supply of water from the sources of the
lake is equal to the evaporation from its surface. If equi
librium has been reached, and the supply of water is then
increased by a heavier rainfall, without a corresponding
increase in evaporation, the water in the lake is bound to rise,
enlarging its surface by overflowing its banks. It will continue
to rise thus until the evaporation from the enlarged surface
of the lake is equal to the increased supply of water. If, on
the other hand, the climate becomes drier, with a decreased
rainfall, and possibly an increase of evaporation, the water in
the lake will sink and the surface become smaller.
Now wc have decisive evidence that the water in the Van
and Urmia Lakes cannot have been higher, on an average, in
historie times than it is now. On Lake Van there are several
old fortresses (Akhlat, Adeljivas, and Arjish) whose walls are
now being destroyed by the water ; but the water-level
cannot possibly have been higher when they were built, and
probably it was a good deal lower. One of these towns has
had to be evacuated. Moreover, several villages are so near
the edge of the lake that they are threatened by the water.
A big mulberry-tree on the margin of Lake Van (in the Sheikh
Ora crater), which might have been five hundred years old,
stood in 1898 with half its root under water and was dying,
while an old walnut-tree in Akhalt had had a large part of its
foothold washed away.1
1 Cf. H. F. B. Lynch, Armenia, vol. ii, p. 52, London, 1901. Lynch also
mentions variations in the height of Lake Sevan ; but they are not of the same
interest in this connection. as this lake has an outlet.
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