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1912] FERDINAND’S JUBILEE 105
Bulgarians in the most emphatic manner that they were
courting certain disaster if they declared war on Turkey.
M. de Giers—a serious-minded and straightforward
man—was absolutely sincere in his warning. He felt
much sympathy for the Slavs of the Balkans and dreaded
their defeat, which would have had as a consequence
either the considerable diminishing of the prestige of
Russia, or our being dragged into a collision with the
Central Empires.
I took care to impart to Gueshov the opinion of our
Ambassador in Constantinople, but I could only realise
afresh and more fully that arguments on the subject of
the military strength of the Ottoman Empire would not
produce any effect on the Bulgarians.
I heard besides that King Ferdinand, who in April
and May had seemed inclined for war, was much
perplexed at this moment; he dreaded extreme measures
and would have liked things to drag on for some time.
In August, 1912, it was twenty-five years since
Prince Ferdinand of Coburg had been elected Prince of
Bulgaria and had set foot on Bulgarian soil, although he
was not recognised by Russia and a few other powers.
This anniversary was to be solemnly celebrated at
Tirnova in the presence of the Diplomatic Corps.
Given the circumstances and the activist fever which
had seized the Bulgarians, it was to be feared that the
Jubilee would not pass off without incident; I foresaw
at the same time that at Tirnova all eyes would be fixed
on the Russian Minister and that the King himself
would pay me marked attention. By a concurrence of
strange and significant circumstances, the representative
of that Power which a quarter of a century earlier had
positively refused to recognise Ferdinand, now became
the most prominent acolyte—I might even say the
principal trophy—of his Jubilee!
The celebrations passed off well. There were no
political demonstrations; only in all the speeches
addressed to the King, beginning with the sermon of the
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