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i io
i io THE BALKAN WAR, 1912 [chap. ix.
from this momentary trial, and had continued to reign
on the shores of the Bosphorus up till the day when
the Balkan war broke out. At this very moment the
fate of this influence, or rather of this taking possession,
was at stake. If Turkey ended by losing all her
European possessions, except Constantinople and the strip
of land absolutely indispensable to the defence of the
Straits, the Turks would be led by direct evidence to
understand how little they had reaped from German
influence and protection. The prestige of Germany in
the Near East would be for ever compromised. But
there would be more in it: seeing a Bulgaria, doubly
strong with her obstinate people and her immoderately
ambitious King, rising up so near her own capital,
Turkey would be inclined to seek the protection of
those who, in case of danger, could come to her
assistance directly and with no delay. Now, such help could
only be brought to the Turkish capital by the Fleet
that Russia kept in the Black Sea, and by the troops of
Russian origin which could be brought up in a few
days ; on the Dardanelles side a like service could be
rendered to Turkey by the English and French
Mediterranean Squadrons. Such a situation of the Powers
of the Entente in Constantinople would naturally not
constitute the definite solution of the Eastern question,
but it would hold enormous guarantees for us in the
event of Germany planning to provoke a collision with
Russia. In short, I considered that the real diminution
of Turkish power on the European shores of the Straits
and of the Sea of Marmara would bring about the
downfall of German iufluence and the increase of our
own. The world-wide events of the last years have
confirmed the opinion I formed then. I am convinced
that if in 1913 the Turks had not been enabled almost
entirely to recover their former frontier with Bulgaria,
the Young-Turk regime would have promptly come to
an end, and Turkey, humiliated, disillusioned about
German benefits and constantly threatened on the
Bulgarian side, would never have dreamt of challenging
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