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Full resolution (TIFF) - On this page / på denna sida - III. Population and Migration - 7. Population - 1. The Growth of the Negro Population
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i6o An American Dilemma
For our first observation of Negro and white natural increase—^that is,
the balance of births and deaths—we may turn to the net re’prodtu^tion rate.
This rate is a combined measure of the birth and death rates adjusted to
a stable age distribution of the population. It is the number of girls which
1,000 newborn girls may be expected to bear during their lifetime, assum-
ing existing rates of fertility and mortality. Estimates of the Bureau of the
Census, based on a 5 per cent cross-section of the 1940 Census returns,
indicate a net reproduction of 107 for nonwhites and 94 for whites including
Mexicans (Table i).^ For 1930 the comparable rates—calculated from all
census returns—were i lO and 1 1 1, respectively.^ Despite errors in the data,
it is possible to derive the following tentative conclusions: ( i ) that Negroes,
TABLE I
Net Reproduction Rates by Color and Urban-Rural Residence,
FOR THE United States, by Regions: 1930 and 1940
(1940 data are estimates based on a preliminary tabulation of a
5 per cent cross-section of the 1940 Census returns.)
1940 1930
Region
and Color Total Urban
Rural-
nonfarm
Rural-
farm Total Urban
Rural-
nonfarm
Rural-
farm
Jll Classes
United States 96 74 114 I44 HI 88 132 159
North S7 74 109 133 103 90 128 150
South HI 75 118 150 127 86 138 165
West 95 75 120 138 lOI 80 129 155
White
United States 94 74 114 140 HI 90 133 159
North 87 74 109 133 104 91 128 150
South HO 76 120 145 13^ 92 145 169
West 94 76 119 134 99 79 128 151
Nonwhite
United States 107 74 114 160 HO 75 119 156
North 83 79 (a) (a) 87 82 (a) (a)
South 113 71 112 160 II5 71 116 153
West 119 (a) (a) (a) 157 (a) (a) (a)
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States: IQ40. Population. Preliminary Release; Series P-s, No. 13
(a) Rates not shown for those population groups which, in 1940. had fewer than 20.000 females under
5 years old.
like whites, are not reproducing themselves so rapidly as they used to, (2)
that probably their rate is now higher than that of the whites, and (3)
that this differential is a new phenomenon, at least in so far as it is signifi-
cant. If such a differential continues into the future and if it is not fully
compensated for by immigration of whites, the proportion of Negroes in
the American population may be expected to rise, though slowly.®
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