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Full resolution (TIFF) - On this page / på denna sida - III. Population and Migration - 7. Population - 2. Births and Deaths - 3. Summary
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Chapter 7. Population 165
status for the masses of Negroes in the Immediate future, and not even
a great increase in the small upper and middle strata,® it is not likely that
the factor of a rising standard of living will fer se be of great importance
for either fertility or mortality.
The future development of welfare folicy might become much more
important, but Its effect would be different from a direct rise in income.
If the social security system is extended and if allowances are going to be
given to children, and if other welfare policies—In regard to public housing,
nutrition, and health—are developed and directed more upon the welfare
of children, this might stop the decline in fertility, decrease mortality and
raise net reproduction. These effects would be greater for poor people
than for the well-to-do people, and therefore would be greater for Negroes
than for whites—since Negroes are more concentrated in the lower income
strata. If there is an increased spread of information on birth controly there
will be a decrease in fertility, mortality and net reproduction.
Another possible influence on the future of Negro population in the
United States is immigration. In the 1940 Census, there were enumerated
only 84,000 foreign-born Negroes in the entire country.^® In 1900, there
were 41,000 foreign-born Negroes in the country. The total Negro popula-
tion in that year was 8,833,994.®® The bulk of the foreign-born Negroes
came from the West Indies. Lack of opportunities for Negroes in the
United States makes it improbable that the rate of Negro immigration
will become significant, but there is always a possibility. Despite the fact
that the majority of these immigrant Negroes live in New York City,
and most of the remainder live in other cities, they seem to have a high
fertility.®^
3. Summary
Popular theories on the growth of the Negro population in America
have been diverse. At times it has been claimed that Negroes ‘‘breed like
rabbits,” and that they will ultimately crowd out the whites if they are not
deported or their procreation restricted. At other times it has been pro-
nounced that they are a “dying race,” bound to lose out in the “struggle
for survival.” Statistics—both of the comprehensive kind in the United
States Census and the limited kind gathered in sample surveys—have been
used to bolster both arguments.®®
With the very insufficient and inadequate measures of the factors of
change affecting the reproduction of the Negro population in America, it
is difficult to piece together a satisfactory prediction of the future course
of the total number and the proportion of Negroes in the United States.
It can be stated confidently, though, that both these extremes of popular
• See Part IV.
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